HEAD I LOSE, TAIL YOU WIN - Protagoras Theory

This is a beautiful essay by Dr. Subir Roy:

Protagoras Paradox

Over 2000 years ago, in Greece, there was a lawyer named Protagoras. A young student, Euthalos, requested to apprentice under him, but was unable to pay the fees. The student struck a deal saying, “I will pay your fee the day I win my first case in the court”. Teacher agreed. When the training was complete and a few years had elapsed without the student paying up, the teacher decided to sue the student in the court of law.
The teacher thought to himself: ‘If I win the case, as per the law, the student will have to pay me, as the case is about non-payment of dues. And if lose the case, the student will still have to pay me, because he would have won his first case. Either way I will get paid’.
The student’s view was, ‘If I win the case, I won’t have to pay the teacher, as the case is about my non-payment of fees. And if I lose the case, I don’t have to pay him since I wouldn’t have won my first case yet. Either way I will not pay the teacher.’
This is known as Protagoras Paradox, which ever way you look both have equally convincing arguments, one can go either way in supporting the teacher or the student and would not be wrong.

Those of us in medical practice often come across such situations, either in making a diagnostic or therapeutic decision. One physician can recommend a course of treatment based on scientific evidence and another can recommend a diametrically opposite course again based on medical evidence. Right or wrong, but some merit would exist on both sides. Often the physician himself is having an internal struggle to make a decision about the most appropriate course of action, Protagoras & Euthalos are arguing in his mind, to do this or to do that. The horns of dilemma are tearing him apart.

But what prompted this essay was a tweet by Donald Trump, ‘hope the cure is not worse than the disease’. I hate to say, but I find some merit in this tweet. In our global attempt to flatten the COVID curve, I hope we do not flatten the global economy curve. The question is what’s the best way forward. One group recommends ‘total lockdown’ to break the transmission chain, based on evidence from China, they managed to control the spread of the virus by ruthless lock down and 3 months later they are showing that disease is controlled in Wuhan. On the other hand, the other school of thought is graded isolation & protection of elderly and very young and those with co-morbidities, let it spread amongst the young and healthy, after all the disease ultimately will be controlled when we achieve ‘herd immunity’. The medical community is divided in these two groups. To enforce complete lockdown or Graded isolation?

To complicate the issue the epidemiologists have joined the bandwagon with cacophony of statistical analysis. From Rosy to Dooms day predictions. If we don’t do a complete lockdown then a million people will die in 1 year. No say some more like 90 million will die in 1 year. Whose data analysis is correct. Some suggest do nothing, nature will take over in a few months and all will be well, they quote historical data to justify their recommendations. On whose inputs should we base our disaster management strategy.
Then come the economists with their doomsday predictions. If this continues till May our medical resources will be overwhelmed, Agriculture will suffer, food shortages will occur, production will come to a standstill. There will be an economic crisis of the proportions that world has not seen ever. So, break this lockdown nonsense and let’s get back to work as usual.

What will our political masters do. My guess is they will listen to medical experts, epidemiologists & economists. Then they will decide what course of action will ensure their survival, what will get them people’s votes and they will run with that. At present ‘Lockdown” finds favour with them. Boris in UK had to abandon the recommendations of the medical community about graded response, because the people’s perception became that our Government is not doing enough to protect us citizens. That means revolt against him. So, screw it, lets go with total lockdown if that’s what the people want. Gradually people will get tired of lockdown and demand- let life go on. Then with equally convincing arguments the governments will say the time has now come to lift the blockade, we have controlled the contagion, we have won.

Unfortunately, the costs in either case will be huge, both lives and money!
Incidentally the Protagoras Paradox has not been resolved till date. Students in Law school still hold mock trial and give arguments on both sides. With out any resolution of the dispute.

Trust me ?

China BLOCKED discussions on TRANSPARENCY over the Corona pandemic. Why would a country that's really sincere, block the discussions on this very serious disease ? If you have nothing to hide, why fear disclosure? Unless it fears the discovery of its mischief !

Aren't we sick and tired of the "hero worshipping" of China. Every day I receive the propaganda bullshit from all it's worshippers. It's like we are asked to thank the man who raped your daughter and now brings flowers to your home? This is EXACTLY what China is doing now by "offering assistance" to other countries, including Malaysia. DAMMIT - China caused the pandemic, it darned well help heal the world.

I'm saying this because the Chinese devised propaganda machinery has reached a SICKENING level of nausea:

1) Whether or not it created the virus in its Wuhan lab is secondary to the fact that it tried to "silence" the whistle-blower,

2) The excuse it used in the above was that the doctor was misleading the public to the SARS-like virus. Come on lah, at that time, the poor Dr. WL Li didn't know the name of this virus. In any case, the Chinese govt itself later exonerated him (when the world knew of course),

3) It immediately locked down the city (along with other cities) to spread the news/infection - because the existence of the germ-warfare lab in Wuhan would be exposed,

4) It only announced this virus some 6 to 8 weeks later - why ? Imagine if the world was informed immediately - we will ALL be not in this position,

5) I had earlier said that a $10 Trillion fine would be in order but am now informed that a $20 Trillion suit has been filed. I hope it succeeds. China needs to reimburse the world for its negligence, as a minimum,

6) The FBI has arrested a few Chinese spies trying to smuggle out of the US, germ and AI secrets. Not a word from Emperor Xi on these arrests....normally if their citizens are innocent, all countries will come to the rescue by issuing press statements and offering legal help. Here zilch. GUILTY !

7) If indeed the US was responsible (China spread false news about the CDC director saying the dead in the US were found to be corona virus infected in the US long ago by pointing to some fake news sites. I actually heard the CDC director's explanation to the US Senate on this issue and he said nothing of the sort!), why not launch a slander suit too? Afterall, it is hoped that justice will prevail when this comes to the open,

8) To garner some leverage, China even "begged" it's arch enemy, India, to support it against the US in the upcoming summit on the virus where the Big boys are supposed to attend. Remember, these 2 nations are not the best of friends but Xi ran to India to pay homage to Modi recently,

9) Of course the most telling sign is the "control mentality" of the Communist government. In fact, it was just revealed that China under-reported the pandemic casualties by some 60%. Now, which country that is sincere about containing an outbreak will deliberately under report by 60% ? 10% maybe an error but 60% ???? Stop this "ball carrying". China is culprit.

10) And just recently, the re-emergence of Hantavirus - sent from Wuhan. The lightning strikes twice - coincidence ????

I am hoping that once the containment efforts settle down, the US will go after China for this crime upon humanity. It cannot go unpunished. There must be a deterrent monetary penalty to prevent a similar blight upon humanity.

Reap what you sow

Since sometimes I'm seen as anti-establishment, I will try to assist the powers that be this time. These are from the various pronouncements made by the current ministers/MPs who will wield power for the next few years. Hence my wish list for the first 60 days for the PN government is as follows:

1) Implement Hudud/Syariah law for all Muslims.
2) Close down Genting Casino (theme park OK).
3) All bars/entertainment outlets to be shut by 12am.
4) All 4-ekor outlets to be shut down immediately.
5) All cinemas to be shut down immediately.
6) All Govt offices to be closed on Fridays for prayers.
7) All non RTM channels to be shut down.
8) Bah-kut-teh/char-siew cannot be sold in public immediately.
9) All government offices to be open till 5pm on Sundays.
10) No more pictures of pigs/dogs/DSAI to be displayed in public.
11) All public pools to be segregated between male and female.
12) All supermarkets to sell halal-only items.
13) All hotels to serve halal only food.
14) All monies earned from taxes to separated into muslim and non-muslim sources. The money then is to be used solely for the benefit of each community based on the collection.
15) All muslims to take the haj with the "halal" money only.
16) All govt businesses must stop 10 minutes for the prayer calls.
17) All housing estates to have a loudspeaker that calls for prayers.
18) All Muslims accused of rape, incest, robbery, corruption, slander etc to be stoned to death or as provided for by the religion.
19) All patients in hospitals to be treated by doctors of the same religion. If atheist and cannot find an atheist doctor, then go see a bomoh/sinseh etc.
20) Raja Bomoh to be appointed as the National Health Adviser.
21) That "thug-looking-black-glassed" fellow to be appointed as the National Security Adviser.
22) All non religious radio broadcasts to be banned.
23) All Muslims must contribute to tithe 10% of their gross earning.
24) Condom sales be banned immediately as they promote undesired sex.
25) All non muslim politicians to resign/be sacked from government positions.

Afterall, that's what we voted for in GE14 isn't it?

UNEASY LIES THE HEAD THAT WEARS A CROWN

If PN had the majority of the MPs it declared it had, in order to be numerically considered to appoint it's candidate as PM, then it would not fear the holding of the next sitting in Parliament as soon as possible. (Of course I am cognizant of the clause that the actual provision says "in the opinion of...").

Any excuses (eg. re-reading of papers submitted by MPs of the previous Government is simply NONSENSICAL because the new House is still made up of the SAME MPs who are now wearing a different hat of allegiance) for delaying the next sitting not acceptable to the Rakyat. What more if it is delayed for 2.5 months to 18 May. Are YOU are afraid of the big bad wolf?

Thus, it's logically obvious that a longer time period is requested from the Speaker to hold the next Dewan Rakyat sitting because the appointed person needs more time to garner support because he/she does not have the 112 MPs to vote on his/her side in the Dewan. This would be a disaster for the new PM. You are of course, used to bartering ala Malaysia. Remember, the previous PM openly said "Cash is King".

Of course, the lobbying for senior positions in the new Cabinet is a major reason why the delay is sought. Afterall, when you sleep with the Devil, you know what you bargained for.

(A lawyer says postponing the Dewan Rakyat sitting from March 9 to May 18 is against the Standing Orders as the new prime minister, Muhyiddin Yassin, must comply with the notice period of 28 days as required under Order 11 (3). “Therefore under these circumstances, the prime minister cannot invoke Order 11. He has not given 28 days of notice. He cannot, it is impossible,” he said, adding that Muhyiddin only took office on March 1, eight days before the house was scheduled to convene. The lawyer was responding to a Berita Harian report today quoting speaker Mohd Ariff Md Yusof on the postponement of the Dewan Rakyat sitting ).

While lawyers have said that the Standing Order prohibits the extension of time as provided by Order 11(3), my personal plain reading of the said clause (see below) doesn't give me comfort that they were 100% correct in making that assertion. Further, the Speaker is an experienced former Judge and I'm sure if he announced the date as such, he would have checked the applicability of the said Order(s) before being called a fool. But then again, this is Malaysia....where everything Boleh?

I go back to my earlier opinion on the wearer of the heavy crown.

Truth be told.

You Make The Bed, YOU Lie on It

I didn't pen the below but I wish I did. It is "fucxxxg"brilliant ! Must share.
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You Make The Bed, YOU Lie on It.
By: Casey Sze Tho

They say that in hindsight, you should have known better. How true. Here, my 2 cents worth:

1. Mahathir should have never resigned, whatever the pressure or circumstance. When you sit on that chair, you hold power. The cards are still in your hands, just shovel around. But alas, his ego got in the way. He had resigned so many times from so many positions and they always begged him to come back. But calling wolf too many times is a dangerous thing. You attract wizards and witches. So you make the bed, you lie on it, old man.

2. Lim Guan Eng did little wrong, but his egoistical arrogance got in the way. He insulted Sawarak and says it will bankrupt in 3 years. He is a good deliverer but has a bad mouth. GPS were so insulted, they would never work with DAP. If he were kinder, more tactful, he would have made more friends and less enemies. With Azmin already in the news about forming a new alliance for months already (everyone knew you mean he didn’t?) - he should have courted GPS. Instead his mouth got the better of him. He made this bed surely, he has to lie on it. Sarawak is not going to bed with an foul-mouthed accountant, no matter how honest he counts.

3. Anwar is a great salesman but a lot of people don’t trust him. He seemed to have trust issues, even with his tennis player of umpteen years. You like the man, but you don’t trust him. And worse - you’ll like to take revenge on him; everybody wants to take some revenge on him, dunno why. He attracts a great loyal following but he also attracts revenge. I don’t know why Azmin suddenly hates him so much. Maybe he started the video thing on Azmin or maybe he didn’t, but for sure, Azmin believes Anwar screwed him. So Anwar, you make your own bed, so go lie on it. You are screwed. This time, nonetheless without exception, by everyone.

4. By any account, Azmin is a scoundrel. He is alleged to have slept with boys, but then, who cares? He certainly does. He thinks Anwar did the same thing and defended Anwar almost 20 years but now Anwar wants to screw him because he - Azmin, is ambitious. Azmin is willing to sell his soul to take revenge for his ambition. Nevermind the entire world would call him a scoundrel - so long as he can screw Anwar back and climb on top, he will make a bed and lie on it. He finds comfort screwing and screw he does screw well. Everyone he screws, so long there’s a hole.

4. The King might have started well and in my humble opinion, he was earnest about solving the impasse. But then everybody was coming with names and more names. I guessed he got enough. Maybe a bit hasty in hindsight, but then, he is King. Once he decides - rightfully or wrongfully - he is not going to u-turn. He is King. He is not a politician - you guys make your own beds, I am going to lie on mine. You guys go fight it out, I know I made the best decision. It’s my bed - I lie on my bed, not yours.

5. Muyhiddin has lost much of his pancreas, but still this sick man would want a PM burial as he kicks the bucket. I don’t know what he is thinking - but if I were 70 plus years old with half a pancreas, I would want to spend time with my grandchildren and drink whiskey everyday. After all, what’s there to prove ? I would want to lie on satin silks to sleep, not buried upright in an unmarked grave halfway through a thankless PM job. He is going to die on the job, I dare say. The stress will kill him faster, that’s all. He dies faster on this bed but he does not care.

In life, everyone makes their own beds. They lie on the bed they deserve, no more, no less.

I’d like to lie on mine and smell the roses with my lovely wife.

You guys - go screw yourselves as much as you like, just don’t climb to my bed.

My bed is mine. Sleep tight on yours.

LET THEM EAT CAKE ?

Q. Why not let the King interview the Rakyat instead of MPs who will be partisan to their own party rules? Afterall, the Rakyat would reflect better the wishes of the people?

A1. The Rakyat did indeed give it's vote in 2018 as to how it wants the country to be run. Looks like the politicians have pulled the carpet under the Rakyat?

A2. A couple of days ago, I wrote a piece about the repercussions of another GE in this climate. Unfortunately the "rakyat" is also confused. I bet you, in the kampongs, estates and far-off lands, they haven't a foggiest idea what's going on in the corridors of power. For them, it is biz as usual, regardless of who's in power, in KL.

A3. There's a saying, "Religion is the opium of the masses".....and we certainly know what that will do to us in a country of 30mil+ addicts. Besides, the King simply cannot interview the (individual) masses because the elected MPs afterall, are supposed to convey the Rakyat's message. And even if he somehow does it, I also fear the outcome.

A4. It's like it was when Hitler was ruling. We conveniently fool ourselves by saying "the Rakyat is NOT stupid". Remember, millions cheered Hitler too, even when they knew he was CLEARLY wrong. Millions cheered Mao when he was busy killing millions. Same with Lenin, same now with Trump.

A5. The Roman Emperors held 300 days celebrations for the masses to keep them unfocussed. Nothing has changed. Ignorant masses often cannot see the simple truths and sadly, it does not have the ability to see the clear ends. The "stupidity" of the ignorant masses has been proven thousands of times in history. Time and time again, they follow the wrong leader and in the end, suffer terrible consequences.

A6. When I saw the writing on the wall 2 days ago, I decided to "warn" the our people. I have been in touch with some folks in the right place(s) voicing my thoughts. But in Malaysia, the fine line between what's right and wrong, is ALWAYS blurred, usually deliberately.

Sometimes, I despair about the fruitlessness of our struggle(s) for an equitable society. It seems, it's the will of the powerful minority that will overcome the desire of the weak (and ignorant) masses.

I worry for Malaysians and Malaysia.

Not another Election now

I'm sure every (well, most) Malaysian is totally dismayed over the manner in which political power appears to be peddled from a legally elected government by the Rakyat in 2018, to one that is now called a "Back Door Politicians" (BDP) team.

There is, at this time of writing, every likelihood that this deadlock may be resolved by going to the polls. I know that many of us are screaming, let us go back to the polling booths to decide on who should run the country. This cry is filled with, I'm afraid, irrational motives. Mostly anger. And when we vote with anger, the results are always....disastrous. I am not in favour of a snap general election at this time. These are my reasons:

1) The BDP kleptocrats have nothing to lose at all. They have been charged in court, being tried and indications are that some if not all, will be found guilty. By calling for a fresh mandate, their trials will be postponed and they get to live to fight another day. The Rakyat had booted out their govt in 2018 precisely to see them jailed for their alleged crimes, if found guilty. Up until a few days ago, the Rakyat's aspirations were on track. Let's not scupper this process of righteousness. Justice must be done.

2) The country's finances are being repaired by Pakatan Harapan (PH) (now demised) and the confidence level index was on the rise with world markets. With a new election that will definitely change the economic drivers, the good work done so far is definitely going to be derailed. The ramifications are quite certainly negative and will be long felt by the Rakyat who had no part in these political charades.

3) The BDP fellows who were booted out by the people, have nothing to lose by clamouring for a "recount" now. If anything, they have a chance to make a comeback with a fresh election that they will almost certainly, manipulate, with the assistance of the deep state. Afterall, this was their modus operandi for years. Remember, most of the missing billions may reappear mysteriously to appease some hungry vote devils in 2020. Do we want to risk an election that has the remotest possibility of being rigged? 

4) We have seen the Rakyat's anger at some underperforming PH ministers, namely from Bersatu. Because of this anger, I worry very much that there are elements in society that will punish other former PH reps (who are doing good work) simply because of being associated with Bersatu. We all have read blogs and social media posts where the impatients have vented their frustrations at the delays in implementing election promises. I had written about this before...."Cutting my nose to spite my face". I'm afraid that we cannot risk a backlash of voters that will ultimately "cut off our noses" by their emotional act(s) at the polling booths. We may make an error in choosing the "lesser" evil given the choices we will be presented with.

5) I dare say, if an election was called now, there will be many "independents" who will run, and not surprisingly, will get elected. Given the state of political flux currently, many of these independents are unlikely to have well defined political manifestos. This fractioned election will lead to many camps in the new cabinet, something that will make governing very difficult for an elected Executive. I'm positive that we will have a minority govt with a sizeable elected independent MPs. Independents ruling the floor are not necessarily good when we need a wise decision in the August house. It may well happen that we end up having a lame-duck parliament.

6) Given the hightened racial and religion-centric state of the country currently, I fear that the Rakyat may vote along ethnic lines with more gusto than before. Many good candidates may end up losing because they are a victim of this polarised voting vendetta. We have seen this happen in the several by-elections held in 2019. UMNO and PAS (and even maybe Bersatu now) will certainly go on a racially pronged strategy to garner support. We fought for 61 years to vote as Malaysian and now to regress into parochialism is definitely a major disappointment to those of us who believe in the "best man for the job" dictum.

7) From the above reason, it is my believe that Bersatu, Azmin's faction of PKR, many PKR reps, some Amanah reps and perhaps, some DAP reps will lose the seats they previously won. Whatever it is, I will expect a net loss (compared to 2018) collectively in the PH camp. We all know, the beneficiary will be the BN parties who will undoubtedly run along chauvinistic lines. And with this expected pattern, some kleptocrats will be the winner. Are we ready to reward their past misdeeds?

8) A fresh election will cost at least RM 2 bil in public funds. And the mis-allocation of human and capital assets that can be elsewhere deployed for genuine national needs, especially now. I just dread the financial and rhetorical waste that will ensue with a fresh election. 

9) If the BDP does indeed form (part of) the next government, we can expect 90% of the current charges faced by some of them to be dropped, or the courts to rule those charges as "flawed". Imagine, murders, CBT, thefts, abuse of power, corruption and so on, all of which details were graphically described by witnesses and publicized in the media - to simply vanish. We must also be cognizant that besides the millions wasted in the trials so far, there will be 100% "revenge" actions.....many heads will roll with a new Executive team in place. Everything will swept under the carpet. Justice that the Rakyat was waiting for eagerly, will be chucked into the dustbins of polarized politics. 

10) Post election, I can almost definitely forsee a populace, if the inevitable happens, that would have lost hope in a Malaysia Baru. Freedom of speech will be further limited, arbitrary detentions will increase, rule by law be the norm and many of the liberties the Rakyat now enjoys, be reduced or even removed. Odious laws that are in the process of being repealed, will enjoy a rejuvenation. ISA or it's ilks, may make a comeback. This time with more bite.

11) If a fresh election is called, I expect Tun to be the 8th PM in the new coalition. However, with reduced input from PKR, Amanah and DAP in the national administration, many of the rational policies we enjoy in Malaysia Baru, will almost for sure be curbed by his hard-core lieutenants, now empowered by the fresh vote. I have no doubt that religious extremism will become institutionalized in Malaysia, to levels never seen before. The Muftis of certain states will enjoy movie-star fame and liberties. Some permanent residents who are till now treading softly, will be granted facility to insult other races in Malaysia with impunity.

12) With a BDP team, the sacred offices of the Judiciary, MACC, Audit Dept and the Public Oversight Committees will likely be compromised. I expect Latifah Koya and Tommy Thomas to be replaced within 30 days. In place, cronies and old favour collectors will be given coveted positions to look the other way. This has happened before and there is no reason why we should doubt that this will not recur.

I could go on and on but just these frightening prospects highlighted above, are enough to make us rethink a fresh poll. My belief is, we should let the interim prime minister form a government based on his experience of working with PH (but not necessarily with all the politicians who held office before). Those who performed well should be retained so that there's continuity of execution of the Rakyat's mandate given in 2018. Those who were laggards, let's get new blood to do the work.

But one thing's for sure, we should not include the BDPs who have been charged for various offences against the interest of the nation. The billion dollar question is, will politics of Malaysia allow him an unfettered right to do the right thing for Malaysia Baru ?

And if he does not do the right thing, we still have GE15 to redress this.