Malaysia in the next 9 months

About nine months ago, I predicted what would happen within 90 days if Pakatan Harapan (PH) fell from power. Sadly, for me and I believe, many Malaysians, this terrible calamity befell us in March 2020, barely 22 months after holding office.

I do not wish to belabour the rights and wrongs of Pakatan Nasional (PN) taking power, as some say, by the back door. I think the Rakyat knows what went right and wrong, most found wrongs in the manner in which PH ran the politics. I would summarize it as being over-confident and not guarding all doors, front and back, from an attack. As Sun Tzu said, "Keep your friends close, your enemies even closer". PH and we, the Rakyat too, didn't know our enemy.

PN has, as any new government, made rules, amended codes, parlayed favours and has done everything in it's power, to remain in power until the next general election. These favours include awarding plum contracts to friends during this MCO, creating insipid political positions and appointing power-brokers from component parties to lucrative positions in government / controlled companies as payback for loyalty. And, without surprise, it has appointed it's favoured candidates to positions of authority in the system of government and governance - in all 3 branches in the management of the country. This is no surprise at all: Tunku did it first, and Tun made an art of it. Afterall, as the Brits say "Jobs for the boys". To the victor, the spoils.

The Rakyat is totally confused as to the machinations of the ruling elite. Our political intrigues defeat any Hollywood/Bollywood whodunnits. The daily shenanigans are just mind-boggling and often, fodder for the rumour hungry public. At times, it is material for a comedian....and in our case, enough to last several seasons. Keep the masses occupied as they say.

So what can we expect in the next 9 months (I'm using this tenure because my last political predictions rolled out within less than 9 months of making them). I'm listing my thoughts loosely as follows:

1. MCO or whatever name it's called, will be extended to end of June 2020 or July 2020 with stricter movement control orders. The Covid pandemic will still be around and wreaking havoc worldwide. Malaysia will fall into recession by end of 2020,

2. I expect the Speaker to resign soon while the EC Chairman would probably be replaced in due course. Heads of other democratic institutions will be replaced with candidates seen as friendly to PN,

3. Parliament will sit in July 2020 but no unfriendly motions (to PN) will be allowed by the new speaker (likely the Deputy Speaker now). The entire proceedings will not be telecast live and finish early - there will be absolutely no surprises,

4. There will be a mutiny within PKR with many leaving for UMNO. Similarly, there will be departures from Bersatu making it even weaker. Tun may resign from politics if he lives beyond 2021. Anwar's fate is very dicey too. In the end, Bersatu's power will be nominal while UMNO will be the decision maker in most PN (and government) decisions,

5. Most legal cases involving component parties' leaders will be settled in a non punitive manner with nobody receiving a disqualifying sentence (to run in the next elections). Almost all judges on high profile cases will be promoted, retired or transferred and new judges will be assigned to those cases. Many of these cases will be dismissed or the accused found innocent. When this happens, PN will find a lucrative position for them. I expect to see Zahid Hamidi and Ku Nan in senior ministerial roles before GE15. It is very possible for Zahid to become Deputy Prime Minister again,

6. All peninsula states except Penang will be under PN until GE15, which may be called in 2021. Before that, a redelineation exercise will likely be conducted to create more seats, likely in Putrajaya, Perlis, Kelantan and Trengganu,

7. Criminal and/or civil suits will be brought against a few PH leaders and I expect Guan Eng, Tommy and Khalid Samad to be affected. There will be election eligibility disqualification (as a result of the conviction) of a couple of PH ministers/MPs before GE15, 

8. Several mega projects will be awarded (or revived) and China will be (re)invited to build virtually everything at super-inflated prices. I had forecast this before and I believe, this will happen again. Relationship with India will likely be colder than now,

9. MCMC (or a new ministry) will pass (or put into strict effect) electronic media controls that will be similar to what is seen in non democratic countries. Essentially, it will be an offence to transmit materials exposing corruption. Laws will be enacted to ensure that there is tighter, if not absolute, control of the media. Most media will tone down the rhetoric and toe the official line, and

10. Zakir Naik's extradition to India will be strenuously fought by Malaysia, with the possibility of making him a citizen as a means to thwart the warrant.

I have more but will stop at these for now. As it is, a frightening prospect indeed.  I will end with Sun Tzu's advice - "Who wishes to fight must first count the cost”.

Ramesh